We Just had a GREAT fourth Quarter!!!

In the upstream oil and gas industry so many of the larger oil companies seem to view their annual expenses budgets the same....."if we don't spend everything we've been allocated...we won't get it next year." I've seen this a number of times. As a result...there is an annual rush near year's end to spend what hasn't been spent. This reveals some interesting clues about those who sell "technology projects" (e.g. a software project) to the upstream oil and gas industry.

• Scenario 1 - If most of your new business with the oil industry comes in the fourth quarter...chances are you are a budgetary after thought. You are a mechanism by which to keep the budget fat for next year. They might buy your software...and never actually implement it...you are known as "shelfware." If they do implement it...you are generally a services company for three quarters and a software company in the fourth quarter.
  

• Scenario 2- If most of your business comes in the third quarter and fourth quarter, you may be either increasing in importance or decreasing in importance. For example...if you were previously loaded to the fourth quarter and are now getting third quarter business....they are thinking about you sooner...you are not just about saving the budget.

• Scenario 3- If your new business is becoming spread over the second through third quarters....you just might be now mission critical. This is a good sign.

So...when a prospect company comes to you Mr. Investor and proudly declares they have just had the biggest fourth quarter in their history...(followed by..."would you like to invest at a super high price") be wary...they may have just sung their swan song.